jeudi 20 octobre 2011

Downgrade de la dette Etats-Unis - La Chine est prochain?

Well, it seems as if the world is downgraded these days. First we had the "PIIGS" a common term now used in the media during the discussion of the EU and their financial difficulties most nation-states, namely Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Then the U.S. got a shot across the bow of our S & P downgrade here until things are not looking so hot in China, because it works for the truth of its main banks, their assets bad loans, and the reality of their resistance. We had what many call "stress tests false" in the world who do not seem to do anything other than calm the markets for several days. Reuters noted
September 8, 2009, Fitch Ratings said that he was warned that it would be possible credit rating downgrade of China in the next two years because it is strongly increase the amount
its debt. Currently, China is at AA-with Fitch. Moody and S & P did not take similar action. We all know why with S & P, but why did Moody reluctant?
Until September 9, 2011 China Economic Review says in an article entitled, "Fitch Ratings warned it may downgrade China" that "China would be likely to increase its debt by just under
$ 2.8 trillion in the next year alone, and then it would be 55% of GDP. "Why
S & P downgrade is not China at the moment?
I think it's simple, they want more business in this market, and who would not with all the accounting scandals of corruption, China needs credibility and rating agencies can help raise the reputation their companies with good investment grade. The U.S. Justice Department seems to go after S & P with revenge and perhaps a little notion of "payback time" (my assumption) as they call S & P on the carpet for their contribution to the 2008 financial collapse as they rated mortgage-backed securities as far too Supported Triple-A, which were a little less junk food.
There are a ton of business was in China, especially as China needs a little credibility outside its corporate and banking because of all the corruption scandals and failures
submit SEC in accordance with the law once a company public on U.S. exchanges. S & P or any other rating agency would be wise to go after this company, but is it more "pay to play" solid or notes for a total mass of the company again? These are the questions I think we should be thinking at this point, so I ask you to please consider this.
But I would also like to mention another challenge more urgent now, some analysts are saying that China is continuously working prop-economic growth to maintain a rate of nearly 10%, and in so doing is actually
cause the chances of a "soft landing of the economy" to be completely off the map. Meaning there will be hell to pay in the future, to the point that everything is collapsing. No. Not today, tomorrow, but when he goes it will be a free fall, much worse than the decline in the index of Shanghai in recent years, much faster
There are bad loans outstanding, offers loans for bank bonds and a series of figures inflated economic claims of corruption behind the push for ever-present security in the face when things are getting worse not better. China can maintain year on year growth continues at this rate of 10% or near that year after year? Most likely not, and there is a day of reckoning approaches, even though China claims it will never come.
Some analysts I spoke to say, "we will know when the rats start leaving the ship" - meaning all those who know when to start selling, everyone would be wise to do so as
. And when that all happens, well, the debate on currency manipulation will seem rather questionable wrong?
If you are still worried?
Well, no we should be concerned about the EU, and we need to get our own fiscal house in order in the U.S. as well, but do not kid will China meet its growing pains and hide yet the reality or to the appropriate controls to tame markets secure and stable cash flows, and economic realities will come back to haunt the Dragon, and at that time nobody will be able to "save this fish from drowning "- as the old Chinese proverb goes.
My advice is: "The Chinese economy is not as it seems - Investors wary of the real risks"
To better illustrate this point, because it is not
exactly news to most of Wall Street and investors seriously - there was an interesting article on Bloomberg recently, "said Roubini soft landing in China is a mission impossible" by Kati Pohjanpalo published online on October 17, 2011 . The article stated:
"The over-investment" always "leads to a hard landing, and policymakers" make every effort "to maintain the growth of national output at rates above 8 percent
and to ensure a delicate political transition is not constrained by an economic downturn, Roubini said.

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